6,082,000 US MORTGAGES GOING UNPAID IN END OF JANUARY 2012 

IS THIS GOOD NEWS OR BAD?

Lender Processing Services, whose mortgage performance statistics are derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40MM mortgage loans, gives the above headline statistics for loans 30 or more days delinquent and in foreclosure, about 15% of all mortgages in the database.  

Nevertheless, they report that the delinquency rate is down 10%+ from January 2011, and foreclosure rate is up 1.1% compared to December 2011.  LPS says Florida had the highest percentage of non-current mortgages last month.
Capital Economics, a leading independent international macro-economic research consultancy, predicts the housing crisis will end in 2012 as banks loosen credit standards, now lending at 82% LTV with average required credit score to be 700.  They caution that, “Any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains.”  They also say that potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability. “Shadow inventory” is not included, nor how long it will take for those properties, not yet on the market, to be sold.

HomeValueForecast mentions positive trends including an improving jobs picture, low interest rates and a slowing of distress sales on the market, but note that here too, the end of shadow inventory is not mentioned. They state that current Florida prices are at 2002 levels.

Now IS THE TIME TO BUY!