RIS MEDIA: HOUSING MARKET MAY BE ON THE RISE

The key word is MAY.

Many economists see the easing of foreclosures as the key reason the market may be on the rise.  However, they note, “Banks still retain many foreclosed properties on their books and some analysts have predicted that housing prices could weaken again if lenders dump these properties into the recovering market.”

Lowe’s Daily Real Estate Report for first three months of 2012 says, “Foreclosure filings up in most markets.” This was for more than half of the markets tracked by RealtyTrac, “an early sign that long-dormant foreclosures are coming out of hibernation in many local markets.”

The foreclosures referred to above are only part of the shadow inventory, and more people who are “underwater” may do short sales or be foreclosed on in the near future.  Ris Media points out that one of several factors holding back a major turnaround in the housing market is, “the huge number of homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth leaving them essentially stuck in their properties.” 

One good sign is that Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index of 20 US cities shows the steady shrinking in recent months of a year-over-year decline in home values.  Ris Media says, “analysts note that prices have stablizied and sales volume has been gaining.

DataQuick of San Diego reported that, “statewide the notices of default had a 17.6% drop from the same period last year.”  One of the early callers of the housing crash, Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics said, “What are important are sales and inventory, and those are pointing in the right direction… I would say that by the end of the year, they should translate into better prices.”  As reported in this blog recently, NAR Chief Economist said that by the end of the year prices might rise by 10%.  Zillow predicts a 5%+ price rise by the end of  the year.

Some promising factors for home sales include low interest rates and the availability of bargain-priced properties, and a prevalence of investors buying up, fixing up and renting out former foreclosures.  New home sales, with last year being their worst on record, are up 16% for the first three months compared to 2011.  Now we will wait to see what happens to some or all those shadow inventory foreclosures.

SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND HEAD OVER TO THE EXCITING DELRAY AFFAIR ARTS & CRAFTS FESTIVAL

SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND HEAD OVER TO THE EXCITING DELRAY AFFAIR ARTS & CRAFTS FESTIVAL

Stretching from Swinton Avenue to the Intracoastal Waterway, encompassing10 city blocks, the Delray Affair will be open starting at 10 am and Fridays and Saturdays to 6pm, Sunday to 5 pm along eastern Atlantic Avenue.  

Eight hundred of the best artists, crafts persons and photographers from all over the US will be participating. Delicious foods will be available. The area will only be open to pedestrian traffic.  Included will b 5 food courts, two beer and wine gardens, live music and strolling street performers.  This is Delray’s BIGGEST PARTY, and this is the 50^th anniversary of this annual event.  Admission is free.

Ora Sorenson as selected as the artist for the commemorative poster.  The landmark Colony Hotel is pictured with a stalk of pretty gladiolas.  The festival evolved from the original Gladiolas Festival.

The Downtown Roundabout Shuttle will provide free round trip service 9 am to 8 pm on Atlantic Avenue from the Congress Avenue TriRail station to the Public Library, just west of the event.  See map for parking garages.

Attendance may top 300,000 people, 66% of whom attended in past years.  Forty-five percent are over age 54, 73% are Palm Beach County residents. The event generates $21MM in economic activity and has an advertising budget of $180,000, according to the Chamber of Commerce.

HIRING 5,000 HEROES

Yesterday, job fairs for military veterans took place in New York, Chicago and Fort Hood, Texas.  In New York the job fair was held at the Intrepid Air & Space Museum.  There, over 5000 veterans and military spouses connected with more than 100 employers.  A total of 23,000 veterans and military spouses attended Hiring Our Heroes events.

 

Companies came with job opportunities in hand, including rock band KISS.  They received over 500 applicants for their roadie job.  Comcast was there. NBC Universal pledge to hire 1000 veterans over the next three years.

 

Over 400 more job fairs are being held across the country.  Military.com and Monster.com are holding virtual career fairs for veterans and military spouses; over 19,000 people applied online.

The campaign was held by the US Chamber of Commerce, the National Chamber Foundation and Capital One, which has pledge $4.5MM to support job fairs and workforce training initiatives.  NBC has promoted this effort.

Andrea Mitchell reported that the veteran unemployment rate was 12.1% last year.

The Grandview Heights Historic District will be hosting their 15^th annual historic home tour on Sunday, April 01st,  between 3 – 7 pm. This home tour will mark the 100^th birthday of the oldest section of Grandview Heights. Located within walking distance to City Place and the downtown Clematis Street Historic District, the Grandview Heights Historic District has become one of the most desirable residential neighborhoods in West Palm Beach due to its superb location and eclectic, old south Florida atmosphere. Established in 1912 and listed on the National Register of Historic Places, this neighborhood has one of the highest concentrations of historically significant architecture, such as Spanish Mission, Mediterranean Revival, Florida Bungalow, Art Deco and Dutch Colonial Revival.

This year’s tour features 14 homes, the biggest ever, with various styles and in different stages of restoration.  11 of the homes have never been shown in the past, including one which dates back to 1912. Highlights of the tour this year include art exhibits by locally acclaimed artists at Grandview Gardens Bed & Breakfast and Casa Grandview Historic Luxury Inn, a complimentary street party including a full meal, wine, soft drinks and live entertainment by Samm, one of the areas most popular jazz singers.

Tickets can either be booked in advance for $ 25 (plus small booking fee) online at www.historichometours.com or by calling 659-6721. Tickets are $30 on the day of the tour and can be purchased in front of the Armory Art Center in Howard Park. Visit www.grandviewheights.net for more information.

MOODY's ECONOMY.COM PREDICTIONS

… market will not rebound to previous highs until 2030 or later, particularly in south Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona

… Other regions are predicted to recover in 2020

LATEST NEWS

• The 258,000-square-foot Delray Marketplace retail center project has begun construction with Deerfield Beach-based SIKON Construction Company. The center, which is located at the northwest corner of West Atlantic Avenue and Lyons Road, will feature shopping, restaurants and entertainment, and is set for completion Nov. 15 of this year. 
  
• In Florida, the Federal Housing Finance Agency says it completed 119,113 loan modifications in 2010 and 2011. More than 56,550 short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure were also completed during the same time period
• Florida has more loans that are one year or more delinquent than any state in the U.S. but California, according to a new report by the Federal Home Finance Agency. There are a total of 166,000 Florida loans more than one year delinquent, out of 292,000 delinquent loans backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the Palm Beach Post reported. California has 174,000 loans that are delinquent by a year or more.
• Miami-Dade County saw the greatest increase in the state when it came to the rate of mortgage delinquencies, with 23.5 percent more mortgages 90 or more days delinquent than in the previous quarter, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In the same period, the number of delinquent mortgages rose 19.3 percent in Broward County and 16.3 percent in Palm Beach County.  

FROM THE BREAKERS HOTEL

We are proud to share with you that The Breakers has been nominated as one of Florida's top 100 buildings by the Florida chapter of the American Institute of Architects. The "Florida Architecture: 100 Years, 100 Places" competition is one of many events planned to celebrate the organization's 100th anniversary and to recognize the most architecturally significant buildings in our state.

As you are a valued guest of The Breakers, we hope you will join us in voting for the resort as often as you can from now through April 6, 2012.  There is no limit to the number of times an individual can vote. The winner will be announced in early April and honored at the chapter's annual convention held at The Breakers in July 2012. It would be very exciting if The Breakers was named the #1 building in Florida! Vote Now>

We are honored to showcase the original 1926 building and its breathtaking public rooms, all hand painted by Italian artisans, to thousands of visitors to enjoy each year. The parallel path of preservation and modernization has allowed The Breakers to thrive in the luxury hotel sector and survive as the only large historic luxury resort in the country still in the hands of its original owners.  At 116 years old, this is an unusual feat.

Given the number of other buildings included in this survey, it would be an honor to rank at the top of the list. Thank you for your vote and, as always, for being our guest. We look forward to welcoming you back to the resort again in the near future.

Warmest Regards,

The Breakers Team 

PS: You can vote for more than one and The Colony Hotel is on the list as well.

HOUSING PREDICTIONS

Robert Schiller, Yale Professor of Economics and originator of Case-Shiller housing reports, says we may be at bottom, but has no indications of another boom any time soon.

Hear what he has to say.

Florida has one of the highest negative equity 

percentages nationwide

with 44 percent of its mortgaged properties 

reported as being underwater

6,082,000 US MORTGAGES GOING UNPAID IN END OF JANUARY 2012 

IS THIS GOOD NEWS OR BAD?

Lender Processing Services, whose mortgage performance statistics are derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40MM mortgage loans, gives the above headline statistics for loans 30 or more days delinquent and in foreclosure, about 15% of all mortgages in the database.  

Nevertheless, they report that the delinquency rate is down 10%+ from January 2011, and foreclosure rate is up 1.1% compared to December 2011.  LPS says Florida had the highest percentage of non-current mortgages last month.
Capital Economics, a leading independent international macro-economic research consultancy, predicts the housing crisis will end in 2012 as banks loosen credit standards, now lending at 82% LTV with average required credit score to be 700.  They caution that, “Any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains.”  They also say that potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability. “Shadow inventory” is not included, nor how long it will take for those properties, not yet on the market, to be sold.

HomeValueForecast mentions positive trends including an improving jobs picture, low interest rates and a slowing of distress sales on the market, but note that here too, the end of shadow inventory is not mentioned. They state that current Florida prices are at 2002 levels.

Now IS THE TIME TO BUY!

DISCOVER BOCA RATON'S

DISCOVER BOCA RATON'S

GUMBO LIMBO 

ENVIRONMENTAL NATURE CENTER

Founded in 1984, Gumbo Limbo Nature Center at 1801 North Ocean Boulevard is a unique, outstanding cooperative project of the City of Boca Raton, Greater Boca Raton Beach and Park District, The Palm Beach County School District, Florida Atlantic University (FAU), and Gumbo Limbo Nature Center, Inc. Each year, more than 100,000 local and tourist visitors receive valuable environmental education while enjoying respite from the city bustle.  Gumbo Limbo is a great place for all ages to visit.

As a beacon for environmental education, research, and conservation, Gumbo Limbo’s 20 acres of protected barrier island not only provide refuge to many varieties of plants and animals - some rare or endangered - but also represent a commitment to protect our natural resources by our members, volunteers, and the organizations that comprise the Center.

Florida boasts some of the most important nesting beaches for loggerhead sea turtles in the world, and also offers important nesting habitat for green and leatherback sea turtles, as well as the occasional Kemp's ridley and hawksbill turtle nests.  Florida's waters provide important development habitat for many species of sea turtles in a variety of life stages.  The Boca Raton Sea Turtle Conservation and Research Program works under permit from, and in coordination with, the Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC).

All species of sea turtles in the world are either threatened or endangered species. Sea turtles face many threats in the world today that were not an issue hundreds of years ago. 

Some of these threats include:

·         Collisions with boats

·         Direct and Indirect glow from artificial lighting

• Interactions from commercial fisheries
• Loss of nesting habitat
• Pollution

Gumbo Limbo instructs more than 10,000 Palm Beach County school students in coastal and marine ecology every year with programs constructed to meet the Sunshine State Standards Requirement in science education.  They monitor 500 nests a year within a five mile span of beaches and rescue injured turtles and release more than 6000 stranded hatchlings each nesting season. More than 50 programs are offered for children, adults, and families facilitated by qualified naturalists and biologists with Small class sizes and a low cost with more than 13,000 people participating annually.

The FAU lab conducts valuable scientific research which enhances our understanding of sea turtle behavior, physiology, and ecology.  The research creates practical applications in the conservation of sea turtles and other marine life.  The North Trails feature a Butterfly Garden, in full bloom in May and June.  The outdoor amphitheater holds plays.  The ¼ mile boardwalk is an opportunity to visit an ecosystem that once flourished thruout Florida before modern development and industrialization.  Take a free guided walk Wednesday mornings at 10 am.  Look into the half-day week long summer Environmental Camp where the children learn about about plants, animals and coastal habitats, and enjoy many other activities.

Visit Gumbo Limbo Nature Center to learn more about these threats and what you can do to help.   If you might like to volunteer, call 561-338-1588. http://www.gumbolimbo.org

The 7th annual festival celebrating sea turtles and our ocean environment will take place at Gumbo Limbo on Saturday, March 3, 2012! The fun begins at 10 am and lasts until 4 pm.  Admission is free.  Stroll around the lush grounds, visit environmentally friendly exhibitors, attend a performance by Sol Children Theatre, and learn how to make leaf prints! There will be plenty of fun for all ages, from arts, crafts, and games, to educational talks and guided walks through the hammock. Keep your eyes open for Luna, the NEW Green Sea Turtle mascot – a great photo opportunity!

LinkedIN'S Report on

the Housing Market

Almost 11 million homes are now underwater, says financial information provider CoreLogic, a leading provider of financial, property and consumer information. Around 3.5 million homeowners are behind in their payments and another 1.5 million homes are already in the foreclosure process, according to online marketplace RealtyTrac, the Foreclosure Authority™ , that delivers in bulk the most current and most accurate foreclosure data.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent macro-economic research consultancies in the world, providing research on the US, Canada, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and the UK, and on the property sector expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit. The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability. 

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”  In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV. 

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November, 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan. 

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

TRULIA REPORT: MORE PEOPLE 

WANT TO MOVE TO FLORIDA THAN LEAVE

DUE TO PRICE DECLINES

Trulia’s top 10 list includes the number of interested out-of-area residents compared to each resident considering leaving. A rating of 2, for example, means that two people are considering a home inside an area for every one person considering a move out:

1. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville: 8.80
2. Lakeland-Winter Haven: 7.60
3. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota: 6.62
4. Cape Coral-Fort Myers: 2.59
5. Tulsa, Okla.: 2.48
6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach: 2.46
7. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach: 2.44
8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.: 2.43
9. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, S.C.: 2.40
10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: 2.30

 

New York is the top source of long distance (100 miles or more) home searches for properties along Florida’s Atlantic coast and Central Florida (e.g., Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach).

MUSEUM OF DISCOVERY & SCIENCE

MUSEUM OF DISCOVERY & SCIENCE

IN FT. LAUDERDALE OFFERS THE

WHOLE FAMILY A MEMORABLE DAY  

 

 

From the IMAX theater with 3D films for viewers wearing special glasses to the live shark tank which holds a giant megalodon shark, to a cyclone chair demonstrating inertia, you can see more than 200 interactive exhibits.  

 

Enjoy a Turtle walk, watch the playful antics of river otters in their habitat and take a ride through the Everglades in the virtual pressurized airboat in the new $25MM 34,000 foot Ecodiscovery Center which houses the Living in the Everglades exhibit.   Dig for fossils, hang out with bats, see alligators and iguanas.  Experience hurricane force winds in the Storm Center.  Watch the exciting science theater shows.  In one of the nine cockpit simulators you will test your pilot skills.  At the space exhibit, Runways to Rockets, take a simulated trip or Mars or the Moon.  

Across the street you can follow the one-mile Riverwalk Path on ther Las Olas riverfront and watch the boats going by, have lunch or dinner, and partake in the various outdoor fairs and exhibits held occasionally in the Esplanade Park.  A little farther down the block is the Broward Center for the Performing Arts, where you can end the day watching a Broadway play with spectacular sets, music and performers.

Hold your children’s next Birthday Party at the Museum or hold a special event.  Day camp is available for children.  The Explore Store has many educational and exciting games, toys, books and other unique gifts.  Open 7 days a week, admission prices vary.  The Museum strives to provide experiential pathways to lifelong learning in science for children and adults using exhibits, programs and films, and hosts about 400,000 people a year.  The Museum is located off Broward Boulevard, east of I-95; you can follow the signs to SW 5^th Avenue (Commodore Brook Avenue) and turn right- garage is on right and museum on left.   

“THE SKINNY” ON FORECLOSURES 

IMPACTING THE REAL ESTATE MARKET 

& SHADOW IN INVENTORY

150,000 properties were repossessed by lenders in the tri-county southeast Florida area since the 2007 crash.  CondoVultures.com reports that the repossessions equal about half the nearly 300,000 foreclosure actions filed during the same 5-year period.  They estimate than less than half of those properties repossessed by lenders have been resold to buyers.  They further estimate that this rate will continue steadily for the foreseeable future.

There was a 36% drop in year-over-year bank repossessions but that is rooted in part to issues related to the “foreclosure freeze” in 4Q 2010.  Some investors are concerned that purchasing bank-owned properties could lead to future title issues.

 With nearly 299,000 notices of default filed against borrowers, the Florida court system was over whelmed with foreclosure actions.  Today lenders plan for a 700-day repossession process with a cost of about $100,000 per property.  Generally bank owned properties generate lower average prices than short sales.

CoreLogic reports that at the end of October 2011 lenders had a “shadow inventory” of 1.6MM distressed properties and repossessed homes they had not yet put up for sale, down 16% from a year ago.  Florida is one of 6 sates accounting for half of these.  CoreLogic says in a healthy market shadow inventory should represent less than one month supply of homes; currently the figure is five months.

National Association of Realtors says 29% of November 2011 sales were short sales and bank owned sales.    Lender Processing Services estimates that there were almost 4MM homes in the foreclosure process or 90-days delinquent at the end of October.

No matter whose estimate we look at, it’s not a pretty picture!

DO YOU LOVE TO READ... BUT WISH IT WAS NOT SUCH A SOLITARY EXPERIENCE

DO YOU LOVE TO READ... BUT WISH IT WAS NOT SUCH A SOLITARY EXPERIENCE

Join almost 1.5MM readers and check out a social network for avid readers. List your personal collection and connect with “like [or unlike] minds.” Then browse THEIR collections and share ideas and opinions with reviews. You can join for free and can upgrade your account to catalog as many books as you want to. Head over to http://www.librarything.com.

Click the TALK section tab and then look at a topic of interest. Join one of the groups. Browse the Local entries for lists of book stores and libraries that are nearby. Click MORE and you can get free books and review them, e.g. for Amazon.com. Click Zeitgeist for 25 most reviewed books and other statistics. It probably won’t surprise you to find that J.K. Rowling and Stephen King are the top two of 75 authors. William Shakespeare is #7. TheTop 25 Books list gives places 1 through 8 to the Harry Potter Books.